This version of Real Madrid is a lot different than the one that went to the Champions League semifinals last season.
Two conservative managers in a difficult group means this match may play out in a less exciting manner than most expect. This helps Newcastle out of possession and further improves their defensive press, but they do sacrifice in attacking output and shot quality with that lineup. I expect Howe to play a front three of Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron, which would mean Callum Wilson is on the bench. The Magpies don't take many risks in possession either, as evidenced by their matchup with Brentford on Saturday in the Premier League. Only Man City conceded fewer xG in the league last year and Newcastle have conceded the fourth-fewest xG in the new season despite playing by far the most difficult schedule of opponents. We've seen Newcastle be an extremely stout defensive side under Eddie Howe for the last calendar year, especially when he has the first-choice defenders available. Milan got smoked in transition against rivals Inter on Saturday in their derby, but the current version of Newcastle isn't nearly as dynamic going forward right now as that Inter side. The attack can become extremely reliant on Rafael Leao's ball carrying at times and the lack of a second dimension or willingness to commit numbers forward can lead to long periods of offensive stagnation. Milan maintain solid defensive numbers by being extremely conservative in possession and not committing a ton of numbers toward a high press out of possession. The market has taken some under money in the days leading up to kickoff, but I'd still bet the under 2.5 at -110 or better for this kickoff game in Group F, also known as the 'Group of Death.'
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